000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310449 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N102W to 08N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 78W and 100W. An ITCZ extends from 08N120W to beyond 08N140W. Widely scattered showers are present from 04N to 11N between 120W and 140W. Updated sections below OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Convergent winds north of the monsoon trough are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the far southern offshore waters of Michoacan and Guerrero States in southern Mexico. A weakening high pressure west of Baja California near 28N129W is sustaining gentle to moderate northerly winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas across the offshore waters of Baja California and central Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the southern Mexico offshore zones. For the forecast, strong to near-gale westerly gap winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California early Sun morning through early Mon morning, which are related to a cold front moving across Baja California Sun through Mon. The front will also bring fresh to strong northerly winds to the waters west of Baja California from Sun through early Mon morning, with large NW swell persisting through Mon afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly winds are noted over the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate northerly winds are seen at the Gulf of Panama, while gentle winds exist elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas across all the offshore waters range from 4 to 6 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate winds over the Papagayo region will become fresh later this morning and last through Mon morning. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between a weakening high pressure near 28N129W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 16N, and north of the monsoon trough to 21N west of 120W. The associated wind waves are mixing with longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 120W/125W, resulting in combined seas of 6 to 8 ft across the tropical waters along and north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough west of 110W, except 7 to 9 ft northwest of 27N135W due to a new set of NW swell. For the forecast, a cold front will move from the northwest into the waters north of 25N later this morning. The front will reach from northern Baja California Norte to 25N130W by late tonight, then start to dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro out to 20N120W by late Sun. Strong NW winds and 9 to 13 ft NW swell will accompany the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support a large area of fresh trade winds over the tropical Pacific waters along the ITCZ west of 135W by early Mon morning, along with combined seas 7 to 8 ft with a component of NW swell. $$ Forecaster Chan