000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N102W to 08N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 78W and 100W. An ITCZ extends from 08N120W to beyond 08N140W. Widely scattered showers are present from 04N to 11N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the area is resulting in gentle to locally moderate winds across the forecast area. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in subsiding NW swell off Baja California. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are 2 ft or less. For the forecast, strong to near-gale westerly gap winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California late Sat night through early Mon morning ahead of a cold front that will move across Baja California Sun through Mon. The front will bring fresh to strong winds to the waters off Baja California Sun and Sun night, with large NW swell persisting through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are noted over the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Winds over the Panama region are in the moderate range with light to gentle winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the Papagayo region, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate winds over the Papagayo region will become fresh Sat through Mon morning. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure prevailing over the waters north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 16N west of 120W. The associated wind waves are mixing with longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 120W/125W, resulting in combined seas of 6 to 8 ft across the tropical waters along and north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough west of 110W. For the forecast, a cold front will move from the northwest into the waters north of 20N tonight. The front will reach from northern Baja California Norte to 25N130W by late Sat night, then start to dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro out to 20N120W by late Sun. Strong NW winds and 8 to 12 ft NW swell will accompany the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support a large area of fresh trade winds over the tropical Pacific waters along the ITCZ west of 135W by Mon, along with combined seas to 8 ft with a component of NW swell. $$ Forecaster Chan