000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301434
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Dec 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N114W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N114W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 10N between 100W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the area is resulting in gentle
to locally moderate winds across the forecast area. Seas are in
the 6-8 ft range in subsiding NW swell off Baja California. Seas
of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over the
Gulf of California, seas are 2 ft or less.  

For the forecast, NW swell off Baja California will subside 
below 8 ft by today. Strong to near-gale westerly gap winds are 
expected across the northern Gulf of California late Sat night 
through early Mon morning ahead of a cold front that will move 
across Baja California Sun through Mon. The front will bring 
fresh to strong winds to the waters off Baja California Sun and 
Sun night, with large NW swell persisting through Mon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over the Papagayo region,
with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Winds over the Panama region are in the moderate range with light
to gentle winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas are
in the 5-6 ft range over the Papagayo region, and 4-5 ft
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate winds over the Papagayo region will then 
become fresh Sat through Mon morning. Gentle to occasionally 
moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days 
with slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure prevailing over the
waters north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
from 07N to 18N west of 120W. The associated wind waves are 
mixing with longer period NW swell dominating much of the area 
west of 120W/125W, resulting in combined seas of 6 to 8 ft across
the tropical waters along and north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough 
west of 110W.

For the forecast, wave heights will diminish today west of 110W 
and south of 25N as residual NW swell decays. A cold front
will move from the northwest into the waters north of 20N late
today, and reach from northern Baja California Norte to 25N130W 
by late Sat night, then start to dissipate from Baja California 
Sur near Cabo San Lazaro out to 20N120W by late Sun. Strong NW 
winds and 8 to 12 ft NW swell will accompany the front. High 
pressure building in the wake of the front will support a large 
area of fresh trade winds over the tropical Pacific waters along 
the ITCZ west of 135W by Mon, along with combined seas to 8 ft 
with a component of NW swell. 

$$
AL