580 AXPZ20 KNHC 301019 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Dec 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 11N113W to 07N132W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 95W and 130W. An ITCZ extends from 07N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered showers are present from 06N to 09N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough offshore west of central Baja California is triggering scattered showers. Convergent trade winds related to a surface trough near 15N109W is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the far offshore waters of Michoacan and Guerrero States in southern Mexico. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are over the northern Gulf of California. While gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found west of northern and central Baja California, and off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are present elsewhere. Seas are at 1 to 2 ft for the remaining Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere offshore of Mexico. For the forecast, residual NW swell off Baja California will subside further this morning and allow seas to drop below 8 ft by noon today. Strong to near-gale westerly gap winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California late Sat night through early Mon morning, ahead of a cold front that will move across Baja California Sun through Mon. The front will bring fresh to near- gale winds to the waters off Baja California Sun and Sun night, with large NW swell persisting through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergent winds north of the monsoon trough are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region extend offshore to 87W, with 5 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the Gulf of Panama, and well offshore from Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas are 3 to 5 ft for rest of the offshore waters. Light to gentle easterly winds are seen north of the monsoon trough, while southerly winds are found to the south. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua will diminish to moderate later this morning, then become fresh again Sat through Mon morning. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure prevailing over the waters north near 28N134W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 07N to 18N west of 120W. The associated wind waves are mixing with longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 120W/125W, resulting in combined seas of 6 to 8 ft across the tropical waters along and north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough west of 110W. For the forecast, wave heights will diminish through this afternoon west of 110W and south of 25N as residual NW swell decays. A cold front will move into the waters north of 28N and west of 130W late this evening, and reach from northern Baja California Norte to 25N130W by late Sat night, then start to dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro out to 20N120W by late Sun. Strong NW winds and 9 to 13 ft NW swell will accompany the front. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a large area of fresh trade winds over the tropical Pacific waters along the ITCZ west of 130W on Mon, along with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft with a component of NW swell. $$ Forecaster Chan