000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300505 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0500 UTC Fri Dec 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. Updated the Remainder of The Area section ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 07N77W TO 07N100W TO 07N130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 100W and 120W. An ITCZ extends from 07N130W TO beyond 07N140W. Scattered showers are present from 05N to 11N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough offshore west of central Baja California is triggering scattered showers. Convergent trade winds related to a surface trough near 14N109W is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Michoacan and Guerrero States in southern Mexico. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are over the northern Gulf of California. While gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found west of northern and central Baja California, and off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are present elsewhere. Seas are at 1 to 2 ft for the remaining Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere offshore of Mexico. For the forecast, residual NW swell to 9 ft off Baja California will subside below 8 ft by Fri morning. Strong to near-gale westerly gap winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California early Sun morning through Sun night, ahead of a cold front that will move across Baja California Sun through Mon. The front will bring fresh to near-gale winds to the waters off Baja California Sun and Sun night, with large NW swell persisting through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergent easterly winds north of the monsoon trough are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region extend offshore to 88W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the Gulf of Panama, and well offshore from Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas are 3 to 5 ft for rest of the offshore waters. Light to gentle easterly winds are seen north of the monsoon trough, while southerly winds are found to the south. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua will gradually diminish through tonight, then becoming fresh again at nights through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate wave heights. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure prevailing over the waters north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade wind flow north of the ITCZ to about 20N. The associated wind waves are mixing with longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 125W, resulting in combined seas of 7 to 9 ft across the tropical waters along and north of the ITCZ west of 120W. For the forecast, wave heights will diminish through tonight west of 110W as the large area of NW swell decays. A cold front will move from the northwest into the waters north of 20N late Fri, and reach from northern Baja California Norte to 25N130W by late Sat night, then start to dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro out to 20N120W by late Sun. Strong NW winds and 8 to 12 ft NW swell will accompany the front. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a large area of fresh trade winds over the tropical Pacific waters along the ITCZ west of 135W by Mon, along with combined seas to 8 ft with a component of NW swell. $$ Chan