000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290844 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Dec 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N90W. The ITCZ extends from 08N90W to 10N105W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 105W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the northernmost part of the Gulf of California across Baja California Norte south of El Rosario, and into adjacent Pacific waters to 28N116W then westward to 28N125W. Light to gentle breezes are evident across Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. A recent altimeter satellite pass showed 6 to 9 ft seas in the open waters off Baja California. This is due to persistent NW swell that continues to move into the region, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate SW winds are evident over the far northern Gulf of California east of the stationary front, but light breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf of California. Light breezes also prevail over Mexican offshore waters south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through late today. The large NW swell to 9 ft off Baja California will subside below 8 ft through tonight. Looking ahead, expect strong to near-gale westerly gap wind across the northern Gulf of California Sat ahead of a cold front that will move across Baja California Sun through Mon. The front will bring fresh to strong winds Sun to the waters off Baja California, with large NW swell persisting through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region extend offshore to 88W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes and moderate wave heights are evident elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. The large NW swell associated with the earlier Tehuantepec gap wind event that were impacting the offshore waters of Guatemala have subsided. South of the monsoon trough, winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh northerly winds and seas to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua will gradually diminish through tonight. Wave heights will build to 7 ft off Guatemala and El Salvador today as SW swell mixes with seas from the gap winds originating from the Papagayo region. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate wave heights. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure prevailing over the waters north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade wind flow north of the ITCZ to about 20N. The associated wind waves are mixing with longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 130W, resulting in combined seas of 8 to 9 ft across the tropical waters along and north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Additional reinforcing NW swell is impacting the waters north of 28N with highest seas to 10 ft. For the forecast, wave heights will diminish through tonight west of 110W as the large area of NW swell decays. A cold front will move from the northwest into the waters north of 20N late Fri, and reach from northern Baja California Norte to 25N130W by late Sat night, then start to dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro out to 20N120W by late Sun. Strong NW winds and 8 to 12 ft NW swell will accompany the front. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a large area of fresh trade winds over the tropical Pacific waters along the ITCZ west of 135W by Mon, along with combined seas to 8 ft with a component of NW swell. $$ Christensen