000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290338
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N90W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N90W to 10N110W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 105W and 
115W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across Baja California Norte and the
northern Gulf of California. NW swell over the offshore waters 
off Baja California Norte is producing seas in the 7 to 9 ft 
range. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range primarily in NW swell over
the remainder of the open waters. Seas in the 1 to 3 ft range 
are over the Gulf of California, except for the northern Gulf 
where seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move through 
Baja California Norte through late Thu. Seas will build with 
increasing NW swell through Thu off Baja California, mainly north
of Cabo San Lazaro. Looking ahead, expect strong westerly gap 
wind across the northern Gulf of California Sat ahead of another 
cold front that will move across Baja California Sun through Mon.
The front will bring fresh to strong winds Sun to the waters off
Baja California, with large NW swell persisting through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region extend offshore to 88W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to 
fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are across portions of the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters due to swell generated 
from the gale force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. 
South of the monsoon trough, winds are gentle to moderate with 
seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh northerly
winds and seas to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will 
pulse in the Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua into Thu 
night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue 
elsewhere for the next several days. NW swell to 7 ft generated 
from a gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region will persist through Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure prevailing over the
waters north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade wind flow north of 
the ITCZ to about 20N. The associated wind waves are mixing with
longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 130W,
resulting in combined seas of 8 to 9 ft across the tropical 
waters along and north of the ITCZ west of 125W. Additional 
reinforcing NW swell is impacting the waters north of 28N with 
highest seas to 11 ft. 

For the forecast, wave heights will diminish through Thu west of
110W as the large area of NW swell decays. Combined seas to 8 ft
will prevail in persistent trade wind flow tonight, before
diminishing Thu.

$$
Christensen