000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282033
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Dec 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N100W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N100W to 08N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 110W and 
138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft prevail over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern is supporting 
gentle to moderate breezes across the Mexican offshore waters 
outside of the Tehuantepec area. Over the Gulf of California,
gentle to moderate winds prevail, except over the northern Gulf
where moderate to fresh winds are noted. NW swell over the 
offshore waters off Baja California Norte is producing seas in 
the 8 to 10 ft range. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range primarily 
in NW swell over the remainder of the open waters. Seas in the 
1 to 3 ft range are over the Gulf of California, except for the
northern Gulf where seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish off southern Mexico 
through late today as high pressure north of the area weakens and
shifts eastward. Elsewhere, a cold front will move through Baja 
California Norte through late Thu, bringing fresh to occasionally
strong winds to the northern Gulf of California today. Seas will
build with increasing NW swell through Thu off Baja California, 
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region extend offshore to 88W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to 
fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are across portions of the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters due to swell generated 
from the gale force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. 
South of the monsoon trough, winds are gentle to moderate with 
seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh northerly
winds and seas to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
in the Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua through Thu night. 
Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for
the next several days. NW swell to 8 ft generated from a gale 
force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will 
subside off Guatemala tonight. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure prevailing over the
waters north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade wind flow north of 
the ITCZ to about 20N. The associated wind waves are mixing with
longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 130W,
resulting in combined seas of 8 to 9 ft across the tropical 
waters along and north of the ITCZ west of 125W. Additional 
reinforcing NW swell is impacting the waters north of 28N with 
highest seas to 11 ft. 

For the forecast, wave heights will diminish through Thu west of
110W as the large area of NW swell decays. Combined seas to 8 ft
will prevail in persistent trade wind flow tonight, before
diminishing Thu.

$$
AL