000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280856
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds, and
seas to 12 ft, continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong 
winds reach as far as 180 nm downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with a large plume of wave heights in excess of 8 ft
due to mixed swell extending more than 240 nm downstream. Winds
will diminish below gale force through the early morning as high
pressure north of the weakens and shifts eastward. Winds and seas
will continue to diminish through this evening. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N90W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N90W to 08N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 100W and 
102W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

A weak pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes
across the Mexican offshore waters outside of the Tehuantepec 
area. NW swell has propagated into the offshore waters off Baja
California Norte, with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Seas are in 
the 5 to 7 ft range primarily in NW swell over the remainder of 
the open waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gale force gap winds and rough seas will 
will diminish this morning through the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
adjacent offshore waters. Winds and seas will continue to diminish
off southern Mexico through late today as high pressure north of
the area weakens and shifts eastward. Elsewhere, a cold front 
will move through Baja California Norte through late Thu, 
bringing fresh to occasionally strong winds to the northern Gulf 
of California today. Seas will build with increasing NW swell 
through Thu off Baja California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region extend offshore to 88W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to 
fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are across portions of the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters due to swell generated 
from the gale force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. 
South of the monsoon trough, winds are gentle to moderate with 
seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh northerly
winds and seas to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua through Thu night. Gentle
to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the 
next several days. Large NW swell generated from a gale force gap
wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue 
in the waters off Guatemala overnight. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure prevailing over the
waters north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade wind flow north of 
the ITCZ to about 20N. The associated wind waves are mixing with
longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 130W,
resulting in combined seas of 8 to 9 ft across the tropical 
waters along and north of the ITCZ west of 125W. Additional 
reinforcing NW swell is impacting the waters north of 25N and 
west of 135W with highest combined seas to 11 ft. 

For the forecast, wave heights will diminish through Thu west of
110W as the large area of NW swell decays. Combined seas to 8 ft
will prevail through mid week in persistent trade wind flow. 
East of 110W, NE swell from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will 
continue to mix with longer period southerly swell to support 
combined seas to 8 ft reaching as far as 105W through late today
before seas subside. 

$$
Christensen