000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Dec 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong gales and very rough seas persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These conditions are due to strong high pressure and cold air north of the area associated with an Arctic front that moved through the Gulf of Mexico a couple of days ago. Strong winds reach as far as 360 nm downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a large plume of wave heights in excess of 8 ft due to mixed swell extending more than 500 nm downstream. Gale conditions may last into early Tue, but gap winds and associated seas will diminish into mid week across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream areas as the high pressure and cold airmass north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 07N95W. The ITCZ extends from 07N95W to 09N111W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to 10N between 111W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information about a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered west of Baja California near 33N126W to just offshore of Baja California Sur. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds along the Gulf of California with locally strong winds over the southern half of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. Light to gentle breezes persist across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Moderate seas of 3 to 5 ft persist across the open offshore waters, and along the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gale force gap winds and rough seas will persist through the Gulf of Tehuantepec and adjacent offshore waters through Tue. This is due to a powerful cold front that moved through southern Mexico on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish off southern Mexico by mid week as the cold airmass north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Elsewhere, high pressure west of Baja California and a trough over northwest Mexico will support fresh NW winds across the central and southern Gulf of California. Looking ahead, seas will build with increasing NW swell Mon through Thu off Baja California, mainly north Cabo San Lazaro. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 90W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft are across portions of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters due to the gale force gap wind event occurring in the Tehuantepec region. South of the monsoon trough or 05N, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh northerly winds and seas to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua through mid week. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Large NW swell will continue in the waters off Guatemala through Mon night due to a major gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominating the waters north of 20N is supporting mostly fresh trade wind flow north of the ITCZ to about 15N, with locally strong NE to E winds along the ITCZ west of 130W. The associated wind waves are mixing with longer period NW swell dominating much of the area west of 130W, resulting in combined seas of 8 to 11 ft, reaching across the tropical waters along and north of the ITCZ west of 110W. Meanwhile, additional reinforcing NW swell is impacting the waters north of 25N and west of 135W. For the forecast, wave heights will diminish south of 20N west of 110W as the large area of NW swell decays. This will leave combined seas to 8 ft through mid week in persistent trade wind flow. North of 20N, reinforcing NW swell will maintain combined wave heights of 8 to 11 ft through mid week. East of 110W, NE swell from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will mix with longer period southerly swell to support combined seas to 8 ft reaching as far as 105W into mid week, after which seas will subside. $$ Christensen