993 AXPZ20 KNHC 242159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Dec 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure building across eastern Mexico and through the Chivela Pass in the wake of a powerful Arctic cold front that moved across the Gulf of Mexico yesterday is resulting in northerly strong gale gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Rough seas reach SW as far as 10N100W with 20 ft peak seas in the region of strongest winds. Gales winds are forecast to last through at least Tue morning and swell in excess of 8 ft will extend several hundred miles offshore through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 06N87W to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends from 05N95W to 07N108W, and resumes near 08N117W to 07N134W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active N of 01N E of 84W, and from 06N to 12N between 103W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information about a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure centered NW of Baja California near 32N126W to just offshore of Baja California Sur. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds along the Gulf of California with locally strong winds over the southern half of the gulf. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. Light to gentle breezes persist across the SW Mexican offshore waters. Moderate seas of 3 to 5 ft persist across the open offshore waters, and along the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure will remain generally stationary west of the offshore waters through today before weakening and shifting northward over the weekend. The associated ridge will build southeastward through today, and act to strengthen local winds to moderate to locally fresh across the Baja offshore waters, and fresh to locally strong inside the Gulf of California. High pressure will weaken Sun night through Mon allowing winds to diminish across the waters north of Cabo Corrientes. New NW swell will enter the regional waters over the weekend to raise seas modestly. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 89W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8-14 ft are across portions of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters due to the gale force gap wind event occurring in the Tehuantepec region. South of the monsoon trough or 05N, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, moderate northerly winds and seas to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua through Tue. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Large NW swell is expected in the waters off Guatemala through Tue night due to the gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominating the waters north of 10N is supporting mostly fresh trade wind flow north of the ITCZ to about 21N, with locally strong NE to E winds along the ITCZ west of 130W. A large area of NW swell with 8 to 16 ft seas persists across the NW waters mainly west of 135W. Farther east, a surface trough breaks up the ITCZ near 112W. This is related to a broad mid to upper level trough to the northwest of the surface trough. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are evident in the vicinity of the surface trough with winds pulsing to fresh and wave heights to 8 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough will move westward along 10N over the next several days, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas persisting within 90 nm to its north. Seas will build north of 25N and west of 130W by tonight/early Sun as a new round of NW swell moves into the area. Southerly winds will increase Sun as well in this area, ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. The front is currently forecast to stall before reaching the discussion area but swell will continue to build through early next week along with shorter period waves from the increased southerly flow, reaching as high as 15 ft Sun night. Meanwhile farther east, northeast swell will emerge from storm force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mixing with easterly swell from Papagayo, with combined wave heights of 8 to 11 ft reaching as far west as 105W from 05N to 12N. $$ Ramos