000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240324 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Dec 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0300 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A powerful Arctic cold front moved across the Gulf of Mexico earlier today. Very strong high pressure is building behind the front across eastern Mexico and through the Chivela Pass. This has resulted in strong northerly gales reaching minimal storm force blasting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the past few hours. The storm force conditions will persist through the overnight hours. Gales could then last through at least Tue morning. Strong winds and rough seas reach as far as 210 nm offshore currently, and will expand to more than 500 nm offshore by late Sat with seas building to as high as 21 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 06N90W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 06N90W to 09N102W, and from 09N110W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 12N to 14N between 105W and 108W. A few showers may be active within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information about a storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure centered west of Baja California near 31N125W to just offshore of Baja California Sur. This pattern is supporting moderate northerly winds across the southern Gulf of California, with gentle to moderate N to NE winds elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. Light to gentle breezes persist farther south off southern Mexico as well. Moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft persist across the open offshore waters, except for 1 to 2 ft over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure will remain generally stationary west of the offshore waters through today before weakening and shifting northward over the weekend. The associated ridge will build southeastward through Sat, and act to strengthen local winds to moderate to locally fresh across the Baja offshore waters, and fresh to locally strong inside the Gulf of California. High pressure will weaken Sun night through Mon allowing winds to diminish across the waters north of Cabo Corrientes. New NW swell will enter the regional waters over the weekend to raise seas modestly. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 88W, with 5-7 ft seas. Light winds prevail elsewhere north of 10N, where seas are 4-6 ft in mixed swell including E swell from the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Papagayo region and coast of Nicaragua through Tue night, expanding to the Gulf of Fonseca Sat night through Sun evening. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Large NW swell is expected in the waters off Guatemala from early Sat through Tue night due to a major gale to storm force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominating the waters north of 20N is supporting mostly fresh trade wind flow north of the ITCZ to about 15N, with locally strong NE to E winds along the ITCZ west of 135W. A large area of NW swell with 8 to 12 ft seas persists across the waters mainly west of 125W. Farther east, a surface trough just east of Clipperton Island breaks up the ITCZ between 102W to 110W. This is related to a broad mid to upper level trough to the northwest of the surface trough. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are evident just west of the surface trough. Winds near this trough are pulsing to fresh, with wave heights near 8 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough near Clipperton Island will move westward along 10N over the next several days, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas persisting within 90 nm to its north. Seas will build north of 25N and west of 130W by late Sat/early Sun as a new round of NW swell moves into the area. Southerly winds will increase Sun as well in this area, ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. The front is currently forecast to stall before reaching the discussion area but swell will continue to build through early next week along with shorter period waves from the increased southerly flow, reaching as high as 15 ft Sun night. Meanwhile farther east, northeast swell will emerge from storm force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mixing with easterly swell from Papagayo, with combined wave heights of 8 to 11 ft reaching as far west as 105W from 05N to 12N. $$ Christensen