000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Dec 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N84W to 06N95W to 06N110W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N110W to 07N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 10N and E of 91W. Similar convection is evident from 07N to 10N and W of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure regime extends southward into the Baja California offshore waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass missed the Gulf of California, but the NW winds in the region are assumed to have decreased below gale force to the moderate to fresh range. The highest winds are occurring in the central Gulf. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle mainly northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent across the offshore waters of Baja California. Strong to near gale northerly winds are present in the Gulf of California, allowing seas to build up to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, strong to near gale northerly winds will continue through Mon morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft this afternoon. Conditions will rapidly improve Mon afternoon and evening. Strong NW winds are expected to develop in the Gulf of California Mon night and diminish on Thu. Another gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Tue into Wed with potential for gale-force winds. Seas may build to 11 ft by Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly breezes are present in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 89W. Seas are 4-6 ft in these waters. Gentle to moderate S-SW winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found south of the monsoon trough. Gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue in the Papagayo region through the upcoming week, pulsing to strong at night. Seas are expected to build near 8 ft at the time of the strong winds. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds likely tonight and Mon night in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate winds will become gentle across the South American offshore waters later today. Moderate seas expected in this area through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 29N124W and a surface trough extends southwestward to 26N131W. A few shallow showers are noted near the trough axis. The remainder of the area is dominated by a high pressure system located well north of the eastern tropical Pacific. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes are present south of 20N and west of 115W. Seas are 6-9 ft in these waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present south of the ITCZ and W of 110W. The strongest winds and highest seas occurring W of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 8-9 ft swell S of 20N and W of 125W are expected through early next week. A frontal system will approach the far NW region of the forecast waters and bring fresh to locally strong southerly winds N of 28N and W of 130W today through Mon with seas building to 8 ft in the far NW waters. Looking ahead, high pressure will shift east while strengthening through early next week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N and W of 120W starting Tue and continuing through most of the week. Another frontal system will approach the NW waters on Tue night into Wed, bringing strong winds and potential gale force winds N of 20N and W of 130W. Large swell with seas building to near 20 ft will also propagate through this area Tue night through most of the week. $$ DELGADO