462 
AXPZ20 KNHC 180247
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Dec 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0235 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N83W 
to 10N87W to 06N100W to 06N112W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N112W
to 07N127W to beyond 08N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 05N to 09N and E of 95W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge positioned north of the area continues to
intrude into the Baja California offshore waters, extending to
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this
high pressure and lower pressures over northern Mexico support
fresh to locally strong NW winds in the central Gulf of
California waters. Moderate or weaker winds are found in the
remaining waters of the Gulf of California. Seas in the Gulf are
3-5 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the central portion of
the basin. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are present N of 
Punta Eugenia, while light to gentle winds are noted in the rest 
of the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas of 4-5 ft are
prevalent in the waters described.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are found in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as a new wind gap event has begun in the region. Seas
are building to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft
prevail in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northerly winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will strengthen to near gale speeds late this
morning and continue through Mon morning. Seas are expected to 
build to 8 ft by Sun afternoon. Conditions will rapidly improve 
later on Mon. The strong NW winds over the central Gulf of 
California will diminish this evening, decreasing to light to 
gentle by Sun. Another gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Tue into Wed with potential for gale-force winds.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds continue to 
affect the Papagayo region, spreading westward to 90W. Seas are 
4-5 ft in these waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are 
found south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 4-6 ft. The
highest seas are occurring south of the Galapagos Islands. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue 
in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Winds will 
briefly pulse to strong tonight and likely Sun night through Tue 
night. Seas are expected to build near 8 ft downstream during 
this time. Northerly winds may pulse to occasionally fresh on Sun
night and Mon night in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate winds will 
become gentle across the South American offshore waters on Sun. 
Moderate seas expected in this area through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A weak 1015 mb low pressure system is located near 30N126W and a
surface trough extends southwestward to 26N133W. A few weak
showers are seen near the trough axis. The remainder of the area
is dominated by a weak subtropical ridge positioned north of the
eastern tropical Pacific. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
breezes are occurring south of 20N and west of 115W. Seas are 6-9
ft in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds 
and seas of 6-8 ft are present south of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 
The strongest winds and highest seas occurring W of 130W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds expected
S of 20N today and through early next week. The 8-9 ft swell S 
of 20N and W of 125W will persist through early next week. A 
frontal system will approach the far NW region of the forecast 
waters and bring fresh to locally strong southerly winds N of 28N
and W of 130W on Sun through Mon with seas potentially building 
to 8 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will shift east while 
strengthening through early next week. This will yield a broad 
zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N and W of 120W starting Tue and 
continuing through most of the week. Another frontal system will 
approach the NW waters on Tue night into Wed, bringing strong 
winds and potential gale force winds N of 20N and W of 130W. 
Large swell with seas building to near 20 ft will also propagate 
through this area Tue night through most of the week. 

$$
DELGADO