000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172117 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Dec 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 06N97W to 06N111W. The ITCZ extends from 06N111W to 07N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of the Gulf of Panama from 03N to 07N and E of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 83W and 100W and from 06N to 09N and W of 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N125W and extends weakly southwestward over the Baja California offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico is sustaining fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of California. Scatterometer data depicted strong winds over the central Gulf late this morning. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the central and southern Gulf. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas are 4-5 ft in the waters described within NW swell. In the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California, light to gentle northerly winds prevail and seas of 4-5 ft within NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 3-5 ft. For the forecast, strong NW winds over the Gulf of California will diminish this evening, decreasing to light to gentle by Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening and continue through Mon morning. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft by the end of the weekend. Conditions will rapidly improve later on Mon. Another gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Tue into Wed with potential for gale-force winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly breezes in the Papagayo region, spreading westward to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough outside of the Papagayo region with seas 4-5 ft within SW swell. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough. Strong thunderstorms are noted south of the Gulf of Panama off the coast of Colombia from 03N to 08N between 77W and 83W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Winds may briefly pulse to strong tonight and likely Sun night through Tue night. Seas are expected to build near 8 ft downstream during this time. Northerly winds may pulse to occasionally fresh on Sun night and Mon night in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate winds will become gentle across the South American offshore waters on Sun. Moderate seas expected in this area through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb high pressure system positioned near 27N125W extends southward across the eastern tropical Pacific. Under the high pressure, from waters between 15N and 30N, mostly light to gentle winds are depicted by scatterometer with seas to 6 ft. A trough extends west of the high pressure center from 30N127W to 28N140W. Gentle to locally moderate winds are west of the trough. Meanwhile, the weak pressure gradient across the basin support moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 15N and W of 120W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. The strongest winds and higher seas are noted over the waters W of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-8 ft are present south of the ITCZ and W of 110W. The strongest winds and highest seas occurring W of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds expected S of 20N this weekend and through early next week. The 8-9 ft swell S of 20N and W of 120W will persist through early next week. A frontal system will approach the far NW region of the forecast waters and bring fresh to locally strong southerly winds N of 28N and W of 130W on Sun through Mon with seas potentially building to 8 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will shift east while strengthening through early next week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N and W of 120W starting Tue and continuing through most of the week. Another frontal system will approach the NW waters on Tue night into Wed, bringing strong winds and potential gale force winds N of 20N and W of 130W. Large swell with seas building to near 20 ft will also propagate through this area Tue night through most of the week. $$ AReinhart