000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170909 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Dec 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 07N88W to 06N98W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N98W to 06N110W to 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 10N and E of 85W. Similar convection is evident from 05N to 08N and between 93W and 98W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N126W and extends weakly southwestward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico sustain fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of California, especially in the northern and central areas. This was confirmed recently by a scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-7 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas are 4-6 ft in the waters described. In the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California, light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, strong NW winds over the Gulf of California will diminish this evening, decreasing below fresh by Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening and continue through Mon morning. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft by the end of the weekend and rapidly subside on Mon. However, another strong gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are found in the Papagayo region, spreading westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Winds may briefly pulse to strong tonight and likely Sun night through Wed night. Seas are expected to build to 7-8 ft downstream during this time. Northerly winds may pulse to occasionally fresh on Sun night and Mon night. Moderate winds will become gentle across the South American offshore waters on Sun. Moderate seas expected in this area through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1021 mb high pressure system positioned near 27N126W extends southward across the eastern tropical Pacific. The weak pressure gradient across the basin support moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 23N and W of 110W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. The strongest winds and high seas are noted over the western waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present south of the ITCZ and W of 100W. The strongest winds and highest seas occurring W of 127W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds expected S of 20N this weekend and through early next week. The 8 ft swell S of 20N and W of 120W will persist during the weekend. A frontal system will approach the far NW region of the forecast waters and bring fresh to locally strong southerly winds N of 28N and W of 130W on Sun through Mon with seas potentially building to 8 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will shift east while strengthening through early next week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N and W of 120W early next week. $$ DELGADO