599 
AXPZ20 KNHC 170320
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Dec 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N81W 
to a 1008 mb low pres near 06N94W to 06N97W. The ITCZ extends 
from 06N97W to 06N110W to 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N and E of 88W.
Similar convection is noted from 07N to 10N and between 122W and
135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western United States extends southward
into the Baja California region. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures in northern Mexico support fresh to
strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California, especially in
the central portion of the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft in the Gulf, 
with the highest seas occurring in the central part of the
basin.

Gentle to moderate northerly winds are found in the offshore
waters of Baja California Norte, along with seas of 3-6 ft. In
the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California, light to
gentle northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. Moderate NW 
winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted off SW Mexico. Elsewhere, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle variable winds
and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, strong winds over the Gulf of California will 
diminish by Sat evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sat evening and continue 
through Mon morning. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft by the 
end of the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas can be expected across the rest of the Mexico 
offshore waters through the weekend.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present in the Gulf of
Papagayo region, spreading westward to about 90W. Seas in these
waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate northerly winds are evident in the
Gulf of Panama. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 
seas of 4-6 ft are noted south of 05N. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region through the next several days. 
Winds may briefly pulse to strong Sat night and on Sun night 
through Mon night. Seas are expected to build to 7-8 ft 
downstream during this time. Light to gentle northerly winds will
give way to moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama by 
Sun night and into Mon. Moderate winds will become gentle across 
the South American offshore waters later in the weekend. Moderate
seas expected in this area through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The subtropical ridge remains positioned north of the eastern
tropical Pacific and extends southward into our region. Moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds are evident between the ITCZ and
23N and W of 110W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft, with the
highest seas occurring W of 123W. A recent altimeter satellite
pass confirmed seas up to 8 ft in the waters described. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found south of 
the ITCZ and W of 100W. The strongest winds and highest seas 
occurring W of 127W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will sustain moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds during the weekend S of 20N 
through early next week. The 8 ft swell S of 20N and W of 120W 
will persist through the weekend. A frontal system will approach 
the NW region of the forecast waters and bring fresh to locally 
strong southerly winds N of 28N and W of 130W on Sun through Mon 
with seas potentially building to 8 ft. Looking ahead, high 
pressure will shift east while strengthening through early next 
week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N 
and W of 120W early next week.

$$
DELGADO