000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162133
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to 07N120W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N and E of
87W and from 06N to 15N between 117W and 134W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge remains positioned north of the area and
extends weakly over the Baja California region. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures across 
northern Mexico is sustaining fresh to strong northerly winds in
the Gulf of California. Scatterometer data from this afternoon
confirmed strong winds across most of the Gulf. Seas in these 
waters are 3-6 ft, with the highest in the central Gulf. Light 
to gentle winds are noted across the Baja California and the 
southwest Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft in this area in
NW swell. Light winds and seas to 5 ft are noted in the southern
Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, strong winds over the Gulf of California will
diminish by Sat evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sat evening and continue
through Mon morning. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft by the 
end of the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas can be expected across the rest of the Mexico
offshore waters through the weekend.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are likely occurring in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Seas are up to 6 ft in this area. Elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough, variable light winds are noted with seas 4
to 5 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate winds are noted within 
the Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas
are 4-5 ft in this area in mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region through the next several days. 
Winds could potentially pulse to strong Sat night and on Sun 
night through Mon night. Seas are expected to build to 7-8 ft 
downstream during this time. Light to gentle northerly winds will
give way to moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama by 
Sun night and into Mon. Moderate winds will become gentle across 
the South American offshore waters later in the weekend. Moderate
seas expected in this area through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure extends as far south as 19N. A trough, embedded in
the ridge, extends along 137W from 18N to 10N with no 
significant convection associated with it at this time. 
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds N of 23N with 
seas to 8 ft. Between 23N and the ITCZ, moderate to fresh winds 
are noted with seas 8 ft in mixed swell. Moderate to fresh SE 
winds prevail south of the ITCZ and W of 120W with seas 6-8 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will sustain moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds through the weekend S of 20N
through early next week. The 8 ft swell S of 20N and W of 120W
will persist through the weekend. A frontal system will approach
the NW region of the forecast waters and bring fresh to locally
strong southerly winds N of 28N and W of 130W on Sun through Mon
with seas potentially building to 8 ft. Looking ahead, high 
pressure will shift east while strengthening through early next 
week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N 
and W of 120W early next week.

$$
AReinhart