000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161552
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to 07N120W to 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between
118W and 140W and from 03N to 08N between 78W and 101W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge remains positioned north of the area and
extends weakly over the Baja California region. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures across 
northern Mexico is sustaining fresh to strong northerly winds in
the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft, with 
the highest seas in the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds are 
noted across the Baja California and the southwest Mexico 
offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft in this area in NW swell. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, strong winds over the Gulf of California will
diminish by Sat evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sat evening and continue
through early next week. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft by
the end of the weekend. NW swell over the waters off the Baja 
California peninsula will subside today, with seas dropping to 6
ft or less and continuing through the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected to continue across the Baja waters 
through the upcoming weekend. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are likely occurring in the Gulf 
of Papagayo, with the strong winds near the coast of Nicaragua 
and Costa Rica. Seas are up to 6 ft in this area. Elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough, variable light winds are noted with seas
to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted off the Colombia, 
Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the next several days.
Winds there will strengthen to strong Sun night and persist 
through early Tue. Seas are expected to build to 7-8 ft 
downstream during this time. Gentle to moderate northerly winds 
will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are 
expected elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of 
the offshore waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure extends across most of the area. A trough is noted
from 14N136W to 27N136W with scattered moderate convection along
and east of the trough from 16N to 23N between 130W and 135W.
Light to gentle winds are noted N of 23N and W of 130W with seas
to 8 ft. S of 23N to the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds are 
noted with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail south
of the ITCZ and W of 120W with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will sustain moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds through the weekend S of 20N. 
Seas over the NW waters will subside today as northerly swell 
moving through the region fades. Looking ahead, high pressure 
will shift to near 28N over the weekend and then strengthen early
next week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of
20N and W of 120W early next week.

$$
AReinhart