000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 10N and W of 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge remains positioned north of the area and extends weakly southward. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures across northern Mexico sustain fresh to locally strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are found in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, while light to moderate winds are occurring in the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters. Seas in the waters described are 4-6 ft. Fresh gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, while seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat evening, sustaining seas up to 8 ft. Fresh gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, then weaken tonight, only to strengthen Sat night through Mon. NW swell over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will continue to subside today, with seas dropping to 6 ft or less and continuing through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue across the Baja waters through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago show moderate to fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region, with the strongest winds occurring near the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Winds are currently pulsing to strong speeds. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Variable light to gentle northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the next several days. Winds there will strengthen to strong Sun night and persist through early Tue. Seas are expected to build to 7-8 ft downstream during this time. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An upper level trough located just west of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to enhance the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western waters, especially from 17N to 23N and W of 130W. Mariners may experience gusty winds and frequent lightning near the strongest storms. The remainder of the area, outside of the deep tropics, is dominated by a high pressure system centered north of the area that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are found S of 23N and W of 110W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas near 09N125W. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail south of the ITCZ, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through the weekend S of 25N. Active weather will continue W of 130W as the upper level trough is expected to persist just W of 140W. Seas over the NW waters will subside today as northerly swell moving through the region fades. Looking ahead, high pressure will shift to near 28N over the weekend and then strengthen early next week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N and W of 120W early next week. $$ DELGADO