000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160330
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 07N120W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 
07N to 10N and between 131W and 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure located north of the area extends southward toward
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico support fresh to
locally strong northerly winds over the Gulf of California, 
especially in the central portion of the basin. Seas in these 
waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh northerly winds
are present in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte,
while light to moderate winds are occurring in the remainder of
the Baja California offshore waters. Seas in the waters described
are 4-6 ft.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat evening, and sustain seas
at or just below 8 ft. Fresh gap winds will develop across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Fri, the weaken Sat, only to 
strengthen Sat night through Mon. NW swell over the waters off 
the Baja California peninsula will subside through tonight, with 
seas dropping to 6 ft or less and continuing through the weekend.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue across the 
Baja waters through the upcoming weekend. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are noted in the Papagayo
region, especially E of 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft. Variable
light to gentle northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the remaining waters. 
Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the next several days,
pulsing to strong at night. Winds there will strengthen to 
strong Sun night and persist through early Tue. Seas are expected
to build to 8 ft downstream during this time. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to 
gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected 
across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The subtropical ridge positioned north of the area continues to
dominate most of the eastern tropical Pacific. Divergence aloft
over the western waters due to an upper level trough support a 
few showers and isolated thunderstorms from 15N to 22N and
between 129W and 137W. The remainder of the area is fairly
tranquil. Weak pressure gradient sustains moderate to locally 
fresh easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 25N and W of 110W. 
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas near 
09N125W. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail south of the ITCZ, 
along with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will sustain moderate to
fresh easterly winds through the weekend S of 25N. Active 
weather will continue W of 130W as the upper level trough is
expected to persist just W of 140W. Seas over the NW waters will
subside tonight through Fri as northerly swell moving through 
the region fades. Looking ahead, high pressure will shift to near
28N over the weekend and then strengthen early next week. This 
will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N and W of 
120W early next week.

$$
DELGADO