000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Dec 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10.5N85W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 09N118W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 07.5N E of 82W, and from 15.5N to 21.5N between 124W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad and weakening ridge extends offshore of Southern California SE across the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds offshore the Baja California peninsula southward to 20N. Winds have diminished slightly across the Gulf of California today, with fresh NW winds over the central and southern Gulf of California, becoming moderate from the entrance to the Gulf to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf have subsided slightly to 4 to 6 ft this afternoon. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range offshore the Baja California peninsula in decaying NW swell. Seas of 4-5 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, NW swell over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will subside through tonight, with seas dropping to 6 ft or less and continuing through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue across the Baja waters through the upcoming weekend. Winds will increase modestly across the Gulf of California tonight, and become fresh to strong through Sat evening, and maintain seas at or just below 8 ft. Fresh gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Fri, the weaken Sat, only to strengthen Sat night through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Variable light to gentle northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are also noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the next several days, pulsing to strong at night. Winds there will strengthen to strong Sun night and persist through early Tue. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft downstream during this time. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A stationary frontal trough is over the NW waters along 134W. The pressure gradient between the area of weak high pressure to the N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 124W. An upper level trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions, supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 15.5N to 21.5N between 124W and 130W.. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ W of 120W. Moderate SE winds prevail south of the ITCZ. NW swell continues to dominate the NW waters, where seas in the 8-10 ft prevail N of 20N and W of 129W. Seas in the 6-9 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sink southward to near 32N by Fri then weaken. This will lead to a decrease in the areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds, as they shift E of 130W. Active weather will continue in the vicinity of these strong winds as the upper level trough persist just W of 140W. Seas will subside tonight through Fri as northerly swell moving through the region fades. The stationary front over the far NW waters will dissipate through Fri. Looking ahead, high pressure will shift to near 28N over the weekend and then strengthen early next week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N and W of 120W early next week. $$ Stripling