000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151609
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Dec 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N76W to 10.5N83W to 06N104W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N104W to 08.5N114W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to
08N E of 81.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 06N to 08.5W between 93W and 96W, and from 14.5N to
21N between 124W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends offshore of Southern California SE across the 
offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula to offshore
of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between this area of 
high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting 
moderate N to NE winds offshore the Baja California peninsula 
southward to 20N, and fresh NW to N winds offshore of Cabo 
Corrientes. The pressure gradient is also supporting fresh to 
strong winds over the Gulf of California, where seas have built
to 6-8 ft this morning. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range 
offshore the Baja California peninsula in decaying NW swell. 
Seas of 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, NW swell over the waters off the Baja 
California peninsula will subside today, where seas will drop to
6 ft or less. Gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue
across the Baja waters through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds will prevail across the Gulf of California
through Sat, and maintain seas at or just below 8 ft. Fresh gap 
winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of 
the week and strengthen Sat night through Sun. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend downwind
to 88W. Light to gentle northerly winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds are also noted elsewhere across 
the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in
the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the next several days, 
then strengthen to strong Sun night. Gentle to moderate 
northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to 
gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected 
across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A
stationary front is over the NW waters along 136W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of weak high pressure to the N and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of
118W. An upper level trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable 
atmospheric conditions, supporting scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 14.5N to 21N between 124W and 130W.. 
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ W of 
120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. NW 
swell continues to dominate the NW waters, where seas in the 
8-10 ft prevail N of 20N and W of 129W. Seas in the 5-8 ft range
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sink southward
to near 32N by Fri then weaken. This will lead to a decrease in
the areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds, as they shift E
of 130W. Active weather will continue in the vicinity of these 
strong winds as the upper level trough persist just W of 140W. 
Seas will subside today through Fri as northerly swell moving 
through the region fades. A stationary front over the far NW 
waters will weaken through Fri. Looking ahead, high pressure will
shift to near 28N over the weekend and then strengthen early next
week. This will yield a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 20N
and W of 120W early next week.

$$
Stripling