000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150236
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N87W to 07N93W to
07N106W. The ITCZ continues from 07N106W to 08N125W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N
to 13N between 110W and 115W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends offshore of Southern California SE across the 
offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula to off Cabo
Corrientes. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate
winds offshore the Baja California peninsula southward to 20N, 
and moderate NW to N winds offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The 
pressure gradient is also supporting moderate to fresh winds 
over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 6-8 
ft range offshore the Baja California peninsula in decaying NW 
swell. Seas over the Gulf of California are in the 2-4 ft range, 
except 4 to 6 ft across the southern Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft are 
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge extends SE across the offshore waters 
west of the Baja California peninsula to near Cabo Corrientes. NW
swell over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will 
subside through Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail
across the Gulf of California through Sat. Fresh gap winds will 
develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week and
strengthen Sat night through Sun. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend downwind
to 89W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the 
remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the
3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the next several days, 
then strengthen Sun night. Gentle to moderate northerly winds 
will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are 
expected elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of 
the offshore waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold
front is over the NW waters. The pressure gradient between the 
area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ to 
near 21N and west of 118W. An upper level trough W of 140W is 
maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions, supporting scattered
moderate to strong convection from 16N to 23N between 125W and 
135W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ W 
of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. The 
cold front has ushered in a set of NW swell into the NW waters, 
with seas in the 8-11 ft range over the NW waters. Seas of 7-10 
ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere north of 10N and W of 110W, 
with seas in the 5-8 ft range elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sink southward
to near 32N by Fri then weaken. This will lead to a decrease in
the areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds, as they shift E
of 130W. Active weather will continue in the vicinity of these 
strong winds as the upper level trough persist just W of 140W. 
Seas will subside through Thu as northerly swell moving through 
the region fades. A weak cold front over the far NW waters will 
drift eastward through late Thu then stall and weaken through 
Fri. The large NW swell generated behind the front will 
gradually subside through Thu night.

$$
AL