909 AXPZ20 KNHC 142119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Dec 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 09N83W to 06N97W. The ITCZ continues from 06N97W to 08.5N115W. It resumes from 08N114W to 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07.5N E of 84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 108W and 125W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 125W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from high pressure offshore of Southern California SE across the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula to off Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate N to NE winds offshore the Baja California peninsula southward to 20N, and moderate NW to N winds offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient is also supporting gentle to moderate winds over the northern Gulf of California, and moderate to fresh NW winds across the central and southern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, southeast of Cabo Corrientes except moderate SW winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range offshore the Baja California peninsula in decaying NW swell. Seas over the Gulf of California are in the 2-4 ft range, except 4 to 6 ft across the southern Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will sink slowly southward through Thu night and tighten the pressure gradient inside the Gulf of California. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of California will become fresh to strong late this afternoon and persist through Sat. Seas there will build to 5-7 ft tonight and then peak at 6-8 ft late Fri through Sat. Fresh gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night and strengthen Sat through Sun. NW swell over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will continue to subside through late Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend downwind to 89W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the week, then strengthen Sun night, possibly to 30 kt. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N, centered on a 1026 mb high near 35N126W. The pressure gradient between the associated surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 118W. An upper level trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions, supporting scattered moderate to strong convection from 16N to 21N between 125W and 139W. Moderate and variable winds generally prevail SW of this active weather to 140W. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas of 7-10 ft in mixed swell prevail north of 12N and W of 110W, with seas in the 5-8 ft range elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sink southward to near 32N by Fri then weaken. This will lead to a decrease in the areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds, as they shift E of 130W. Active weather will continue in the vicinity of these strong winds as the upper level trough persist just W of 140W. Seas will subside through Thu as northerly swell moving through the region fades. A weak cold front has enter the far NW waters today, and will drift eastward through late Thu then stall and weaken through Fri. Large NW swell generated behind the front has entered the NW waters this afternoon and is expected to peak at 11-12 ft near 30N140W during the next several hours, then gradually subside through Thu night. $$ Stripling