000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141620 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Dec 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 08.5N83W to 06N99W. The ITCZ continues from 06N99W to 08N110W. It resumes from 07.5N114W to 07N125W to 10N133W then becomes ill defined. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 104W and 124W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 21N between 124W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends SE across the region to the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula to off Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between this are of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate N to NE winds offshore the Baja California peninsula southward to off Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient is also supporting gentle to moderate winds over the northern Gulf of California, and moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the central and southern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except moderate SW winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range offshore the Baja California peninsula in decaying NW swell. Seas over the Gulf of California are in the 2-4 ft range, except 4 to 5 ft across the southern Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure offshore of Southern California will sink slowly southward through Thu and tighten the pressure gradient inside the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop across the Gulf of California late today and persist through Sat. Fresh gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week and strengthen Sat. NW swell over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will continue to subside through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N,centered on a 1025 mb high near 34N125W. The pressure gradient between the associated surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 118W. An upper level trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions, supporting scattered moderate to strong convection from 13N to 21N between 124W and 134W. Moderate and variable winds generally prevail W of this active weather to 140W. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ E of 118W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas of 7-10 ft in mixed swell prevail north of 12N and W of 110W, with seas in the 5-8 ft range elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will decrease today, and shift east of 130W. Active weather will continue in the vicinity of these strong winds as the upper level trough persist just W of 140W. Seas will subside through Thu as northerly swell moving through the region fades. A new front will enter the far NW waters today than stall and weaken through Thu. This front will usher in another pulse of large NW swell across the NW waters. $$ Stripling