871 AXPZ20 KNHC 132124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Dec 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75W to 07N89W to 06.5N100W. The ITCZ continues from 08N107W to 07N120W to 08N123W, then resumes from 10N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 79W and 86W, and from 12N to 20N between 121W and 137W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 126W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of a dissipated stationary front can be seen on satellite imagery extending from the waters of Baja Sur WSW to near 21N120W. A weak high pressure ridge extends SE across the region to the offshore waters off Cabo Corrientes. This pattern is producing moderate northerly winds west of Baja California Norte, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the Baja offshore waters to 20N. Winds have begun to shift to the NW across the Gulf of California at 15 kt or less, except for variable gentle winds over the northern Gulf. Light to gentle NW winds are noted elsewhere across the Mexican waters. Northerly swell continue to slowly subside, and sea are now in the 8-13 ft range off Baja California Norte and 7-10 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas of 3-4 ft are over the central and southern Gulf of California, and 2-3 ft over the northern Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere over the offshore waters off Mexico. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to spread southward over the waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek while gradually subsiding. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of California late Wed and persist through Sat, with strongest winds and highest seas Fri afternoon and night. Fresh gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week and strengthen to strong Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 89W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas are expected across the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N, centered on a 1023 mb high near 34N130W. The pressure gradient between the associated surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 125W. An upper level trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions to its east, supporting scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms from 08N to 12N between 126W and 134W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft across this zone. Seas of 8-13 ft in NNW swell prevail north 25N and E of 130W. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 22N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ E of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 11N west of 114W, with seas in the 5-8 ft range elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will gradually decrease through Wed, and shift eastward of 130W. Active weather will also continue in the vicinity of these strong winds as the upper level trough persist just W of 140W. Seas will gradually subside through mid week. A new front will enter the far NW waters Wed than stall and weaken through Thu, accompanied by another pulse of large NW swell. $$ Stripling