000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Dec 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N87W to 07N93W to 08N104W. The ITCZ continues from 08N104W to 07N116W to 10N133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N E of 86W to coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 18.5N between 120W and 135W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 19N to 22.5N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from the central Gulf of California, across the Baja California peninsula then continues southwestward to near 23N120W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail west of Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate winds are across the offshore waters of central and southern Baja California. W to NW gap winds over the central and northern Gulf of California have diminished in recent hours to 15 kt or less, with gentle to moderate N winds over the southern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-15 ft range off Baja California Norte and 6-10 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas of 3-4 ft are over the central and northern Gulf of California, and 2-3 ft over the southern Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere over the offshore waters off Mexico. For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. NW swell will continue to spread southward over the waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek before subsiding. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of California late Wed and persist through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.5N90.8W continues to emit ash and steam that is moving away from the volcano. However low level winds have shifted to a more easterly direction, and ash clouds exiting the volcano are now moving westward and remaining over land. The volcano remains active and additional emissions are possible during the next few days. Mariners should remain alert. Elsewhere, fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 89W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 123W. An upper level trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions to its east, supporting scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms from 08N to 18.5N between 120W and 135W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft across this zone. Seas of 12-15 ft in NNW swell prevail north 25N and E of 130W. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 22N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ E of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 14N west of 115W, with seas in the 5-8 ft range elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will gradually decrease through Wed, and shift eastward of 130W. Active weather will also continue in the vicinity of these strong winds as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. Seas will gradually subside through mid week. A new front will approach the far NW waters Wed, accompanied by another pulse of large NW swell. $$ Stripling