000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130233 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Dec 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 07N104W. The ITCZ continues from 07N104W to 07N114W to 10N133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 102W and 106W, and from 08N to 11N between 123W and 128W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 20N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the central Gulf of California, across the Baja California peninsula then continues southwestward to 22N122W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted north of Guadalupe Island as well as over the northern Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are elsewhere west of the Baja California peninsula as well as the central and southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. NW swell is generating seas of 10 to 14 ft off Baja California Norte and 7-10 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas of 4-7 ft are over the northern Gulf of California and 2-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere over the offshore waters off Mexico. For the forecast, the front will continue moving SE today and tonight before dissipating across Baja Sur. Fresh to briefly strong W winds can be expected behind the front through this evening. New NW swell accompanies the front and will spread southward over the remaining waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek before subsiding. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of California late Wed and persist through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.5N90.8W has continued to emit ash and steam today, that is moving SSW away from the volcano and toward the coast. Latest satellite imagery shows a very thin and narrow cloud of ash and steam exiting the coast of Guatemala along 91.8W and extending southward over the adjacent waters about 100 nm before dissipating. This cloud looks to be drifting westward over water. Volcanic ash is assumed not to be reaching the surface there. The volcano remains active and additional emissions are possible during the next few days. Mariners should exercise caution. Elsewhere, fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 89W. Gentle northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front extends off the Baja California peninsula to near 22N122W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 128W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are occurring from 10N to 20N between 131W and 140W, across this region of fresh to strong winds, as an upper trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions to its east. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds, and seas of 10-15 ft in NNW swell prevail north of the cold front. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 22N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ E of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-13 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will gradually decrease through Wed, and shift eastward of 130W. Active weather will also continue in the vicinity of these strong winds as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. The cold front will sink southward to along 21N-22N through Tue morning and dissipate. The front has ushered in long period northerly swell over the northern waters, and seas generated with this swell are peaking around 15 ft over the waters north of 29N. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as 23N tonight, then gradually subside through mid week. A new front will approach the far NW waters Wed, accompanied by another pulse of large NW swell. $$ AL