000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 08N85W to 06N93W to 07N106W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N108W to 08.5N122W to 13.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07.5N E of 84W to the coast of Colombia, and from 07N to 09.5N between 102W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14.5N between 118W and 128W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 19N between 131.5W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the north portions of the Tiburon Basin of the Gulf of California, and across Baja California Norte from 29.5N112W to 27N114W, then continues southwestward across the offshore waters to beyond 24.5N120W. Strong SW to W gap winds to near 30 kt are occurring across the northern Gulf within 60 nm on either side of the front. Seas are 4-7 ft across this area and expected to build to 5-8 ft in the next few hours as the front shifts southward. Moderate NW to N winds are occurring south of the front across the Baja offshore waters, while fresh to strong NW winds are filling in across the Baja Norte waters behind the front. The front has ushered in new NW swell, with seas of 8-14 ft off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range west of Baja California Sur. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail over the central and southern Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, the front will continue moving SE today and tonight before dissipating across Baja Sur. Fresh to briefly strong W winds can be expected behind the front through this evening. New NW swell accompanies the front and will spread southward over the remaining waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek before subsiding. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of California late Wed and persist through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.5N90.8W has continued to emit ash and steam today, that is moving SSW away from the volcano and toward the coast. Latest satellite imagery shows a very thin and narrow cloud of ash and steam exiting the coast of Guatemala along 91.8W and extending southward over the adjacent waters about 100 nm before dissipating. This cloud looks to be drifting westward over water. Volcanic ash is assumed not to be reaching the surface there. The volcano remains active and additional emissions are possible during the next few days. Mariners should exercise caution. Elsewhere, fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 89W. Gentle northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front extends off Baja California Norte southwestward to near 24.5N120W then westward to near 23N136W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 130W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are occurring from 10N to 19N between 132W and 140W, across this region of fresh to strong winds, as an upper trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions to its east. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds, and seas of 10-16 ft in NNW swell prevail north of the cold front. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 22N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ E of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-13 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will gradually diminish in size through Wed, and shift eastward of 130W. Active weather will also continue in the vicinity of these strong winds, as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. The cold front will sink southward to along 21N-22N through Tue morning and dissipate. The front has ushered in long period northerly swell over the northern waters, and seas generated with this swell are peaking this afternoon around 15-16 ft over the waters north of 29N. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as 23N tonight, then gradually subside through mid week. A new front will approach the far NW waters Wed, accompanied by another pulse of large NW swell. $$ Stripling