000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Ashfall Advisory has been discontinued for coastal areas of Guatemala. Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.5N90.8W has continued to vent ash and steam overnight and this morning, and is moving SSW away from the volcano and toward the coast. Latest satellite imagery shows a very thin and narrow ash cloud exiting the coast of Guatemala near 91.4W and extending southward over the adjacent waters to near 12.5N. This cloud is only 20-40 nm wide and is quickly dispersing. Volcanic ash is assumed not to be reaching the surface there. The volcano remains active and additional emissions are possible during the next few days. Mariners should exercise caution. If volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris is encountered, please report your observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 08N84W to 06N92W to 08N112W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N122W to 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 08N E of 88W to the coast of Colombia, and from 07N to 09N between 101W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 14.5N between 117W and 127W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the northern Gulf of California and across Baja California Norte from 30N112.5W to 28N114.5W, then continues across the offshore waters to beyond 25.5N120W. Strong SW to W gap winds to near 30 kt are occurring across the northern Gulf south of the front to 29.5N, while strong northerly winds are beginning to spill into the far northern portions of the Gulf behind the front. Seas are 4-7 ft across this area and expected to build to 8 ft later this morning as the front shifts southward. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds are found within 45 nm south of the front across the Baja offshore waters, while fresh NW winds are filling in across the Baja Norte waters behind the front. as well as west of the front. The front has ushered in new NW swell, with seas of 8-13 ft off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range west of Baja California Sur. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail over the central and southern Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, the front will move SE today before dissipating. Fresh to briefly strong NW winds can be expected behind the front through late today. New NW swell accompanies the front and will spread southward over the remaining waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek before subsiding. Strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will continue today ahead of the cold front, where seas will build to 7-8 ft. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 89W and northward across the waters of Nicaragua to 12N. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front extends off Baja California Norte southwestward to near 25.5N120W then westward to near 24.5N140W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 125W. Active weather described above also continues across this region of fresh to strong winds, as an upper trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions to its east. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds, and seas of 10-16 ft in NNW swell prevail north of the cold front. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will change little today. The cold front has ushered in fresh long period northerly swell over the northern waters, and seas generated with this swell continue to peak around 15-16 ft over the waters north of 29N. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as 22N tonight. The front is expected to sink to along 23N to the W of 120W by this evening before dissipating. Active weather will continue across the far western waters W of 130W through Tue as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. $$ Stripling