000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120834 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Ashfall Advisory in effect for coastal areas of Guatemala. Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.5N90.8W has produced new emissions overnight. Ash clouds can be seen in satellite imagery lingering over the Pacific coastal waters of Guatemala, between 89.5W and 93W, extending offshore to near 12N. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface, and mariners should exercise extreme caution. If volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris is encountered, please report your observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N96W to 08N110W. The ITCZ continues from 08N110W to 10N132W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 101W and 106W, from 08N to 12N between 115W and 120W, and from 09N to 20N between 122W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California, across Baja California Norte to near 25.5N127W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found within 30 nm east of the front as well as west of the front. Fresh to strong gap winds have prevail over the northern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas of 8-12 ft off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range west of Baja California Sur. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, the front will move SE through tonight before dissipating. Fresh to briefly strong NW winds can be expected behind the front through late today. The front has ushered in a set NW swell across the waters west of Baja California Norte. The swell will spread southward over the remaining waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek before subsiding. Strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will continue today ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front extends off Baja California Norte westward to near 25.5N127W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 125W. Active weather described above also continues across this region of fresh to strong winds, as an upper trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions to its east. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds, and seas of 10-15 ft in NNW swell prevail north of the cold front. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will change little today. The cold front has ushered in fresh long period northerly swell over the northern waters, and seas generated with this swell continue to peak near 15 ft over the waters north of 29N. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as 22N tonight. The front is expected to sink to along 23N to the W of 120W by this evening before dissipating. Active weather will continue across the far western waters W of 130W through Tue as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. $$ AL