000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120230 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Ashfall Advisory in effect for coastal areas of Guatemala. Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.5N90.8W has produced several moderate emissions today, with ongoing emissions. Ash clouds can still be seen in satellite imagery lingering over the Pacific coastal waters of Guatemala, between 89.5W and 92.5W, extending offshore to near 12N. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface, and mariners should exercise extreme caution. If volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris is encountered, please report your observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N91W to 08N111W. The ITCZ continues from 08N111W to 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 110W and 118W, and from 10N to 20N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front has moved into the offshore waters off Baja California Norte, currently extending from near 30N117W to 26.5N140W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found within 30 nm east of the front as well as west of the front. Fresh to strong gap winds have developed over the northern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas of 8-11 ft NW of Guadalupe Island. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range elsewhere west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 3-4 ft prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, the front will move SE through Mon night before dissipating. Fresh SW to W winds will briefly develop ahead of the front through tonight, with fresh to briefly strong NW winds behind the front through late Mon. The front has ushered in a set NW swell across the waters west of Baja California Norte. The swell will spread southward over the remaining waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek before subsiding. SW winds will become strong to near gale force in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Mon ahead of the cold front. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight will diminish to light and variable Mon, then return to fresh to strong by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front over the far northern waters, and extends from 30N117W to 26.5N140W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 128W. Active weather described above also continues across this region of fresh to strong winds, as an upper trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions to its east. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds, and seas of 10-15 ft in NNW swell prevail north of the cold front. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will change little tonight. The cold front has ushered in fresh long period northerly swell over the northern waters, and seas generated with this swell have built to around 15 ft this over the waters north of 29N. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as 22N Mon night. The front is expected to sink to along 23N to the W of 120W by Mon evening where it will dissipate. Active weather will continue across the far western waters W of 130W through Tue as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. $$ AL