000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112054 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Ashfall Advisory in effect for coastal areas of Guatemala. Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.5N90.8W has produced several moderate emissions overnight and this morning, with two significant emissions since 0740 UTC. One of these ash clouds can still be seen in satellite imagery lingering over the Pacific coastal waters of Guatemala, between 89.5W and 92.5W, extending offshore to near 12N. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface, and mariners should exercise extreme caution. If volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris is encountered, please report your observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N81W to 06.5N102W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N102W to 10N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 78W and 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 101W and 120W, and from 10N to 17.5N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure has collapsed offshore of the Baja California offshore waters to the west of 118W, ahead of an approaching cold front that has reached 30N121W. This pattern is leaving a weak ridge extending SE to near Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between this weak area of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico continues to loosen, and is currently supporting mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds over the southern and central Gulf of California, extending to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, and across most of the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle S to SW winds are found over the northern Gulf of California, and across north portions of Baja Norte waters. Moderate gap winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are in the Tehuantepec region. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 3-5 ft range, are elsewhere over the offshore waters off SW Mexico. Seas of 5-7 ft are west of the Baja California peninsula, except to 8 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Seas of 1-2 ft are over the northern Gulf of California, and 2-4 ft over the southern Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will enter the Baja California Norte waters during the next few hours, with fresh SW to W winds ahead of the front, and fresh NW to N winds over these waters behind the front tonight and Mon. The front will usher in new NNW swell into the waters west of Baja California Norte today, and spread southward over the remaining waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek before subsiding. SW winds will strengthen in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Mon ahead of the cold front, briefly reaching 30 kt with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to diminish today, becoming light and variable Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region throughout the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front has entered the far northern waters, and extends from 30N121W to 27.5N140W. A couple of low level troughs are over the discussion waters, extending from just north of the ITCZ to 14N, along 129W and 139W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, as well as the troughs, is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 124W. Active weather described above also continues across this region of fresh to strong winds, as an upper trough W of 140W is maintaining unstable atmospheric conditions to its east. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds, and seas of 10-15 ft in new NNW swell prevail north of the cold front. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will change little tonight. The cold front has ushered in fresh long period northerly swell over the northern waters, and seas generated with this swell have built to around 15 ft this afternoon over the waters north of 29N. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as 22N Mon night. The front is expected to sink to along 23N to the W of 120W by Mon evening where it will dissipate. Active weather will continue across the far western waters W of 130W through Tue as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. $$ Stripling