000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111617 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Ashfall Advisory in effect for coastal areas of Guatemala. Fuego Volcano in Guatemala near 14.3N90.8W has produced several moderate emissions overnight, with two significant emissions since 0740 UTC. One of these ash clouds can be seen in satellite imagery moving SSW over the Pacific coastal waters of Guatemala, between 90W and 92W, extending offshore to near 12.5N. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface, and mariners should exercise extreme caution. If volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris is encountered, please report your observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 07N101W to 07.5N103W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N103W to 09.5N112W to 10N124W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 06N E of 81.5W, from 07N to 15.5N between 112W and 128W, and from 09N to 18N between 129W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure has collapsed offshore of the Baja California offshore waters to the west of 119W, ahead of an approaching cold front that has reached 30N124W. This pattern is leaving a weak ridge extending SE to the entrance of the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico has started to loosen, and is currently supporting mainly gentle to moderate N winds over the southern and central Gulf of California and west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle S winds are found over the northern Gulf of California. Fresh gap winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are in the Tehuantepec region. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 3-5 ft range, are elsewhere over the offshore waters off SW Mexico. Seas of 5-7 ft are west of the Baja California peninsula, except to 8 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Seas of 1-2 ft are over the northern Gulf of California, and 2-4 ft over the southern Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will enter the Baja California Norte waters this afternoon, with winds freshening over these waters briefly on Monday behind the front. The front will usher in new NW swell into the waters west of Baja California Norte today, and spread southward over the remaining waters off the Baja California peninsula through midweek before subsiding. SW winds will strengthen in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Mon ahead of the cold front, briefly reaching 30 kt. Fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to diminish today, becoming light and variable Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early this week. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front has entered the far northern waters, and extends from 30N124W to 28N140W. A couple of troughs are over the discussion waters, one extending from 14N127W to 09N128W, and the other from 16N140W to 10N141W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, as well as the surface troughs, is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 118W. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 8-13 ft in new NNW swell, are noted north of the cold front. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will decrease today as the ridge weakens. The cold front has ushered in fresh long period northerly swell over the northern waters, and seas generated with this swell will build to near 15 ft late this afternoon over the waters north of 28N. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as 23N Mon night. The front is expected to sink to along 23N to the W of 120W by Mon evening where it will dissipate. Active weather will continue across the far western waters W of 130W through Tue as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. $$ Stripling