000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110230 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N94W. The ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 10N121W. It resumes from 10N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 110W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 120W and 130W, and from 08N to 10N between 137W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high pressure center is located near 26N126W, with associated ridge extending SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the southern Gulf of California, and gentle to moderate winds over the northern Gulf. Seas in the Gulf are in the 1-2 ft range in the northern Gulf and in the 3-5 ft range south of the Tiburon Basin. This pressure gradient is also supporting gentle to moderate N winds across the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula with 5-7 ft seas. Fresh winds are lingering across the Tehuantepec region N of 15N, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate northerly winds occurring across the offshore waters off of the Baja California peninsula will diminish this weekend, as the high pressure to the west weakens ahead of another cold front expected to enter the Baja Norte waters Sun afternoon. Moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California will diminish this weekend, then shift SW and strengthen in the northern Gulf Sun night through Mon ahead of the cold front. Strong gap winds recently occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to diminish through Sun night then become light and variable Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early next week, briefly pulsing to strong tonight. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front has just entered the far northern waters. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 118W. Light to gentle winds are found north of 20N. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will decrease this weekend as the ridge weakens. The cold front has ushered in fresh long period northerly swell over the northern waters. Seas with this swell will build to near 15 ft late Sun afternoon. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as 23N Mon night. The front is expected to sink to along 23N to the W of 120W by Mon evening and dissipate. Active weather will continue across the far western waters W of 130W through Tue as an upper level trough persist just W of 140W. $$ AL