000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102050
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 07N80W to 08N89W to
06.5N102W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N102W to 10N123W to
09.5N133W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04N to 07N E of 84W to the coast of Colombia, and from
05.5N to 13N between 91W and 114W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 118W and 
130W, and from 08N to 20N W of 134W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure center is located near 27N124W, with an
associated weak ridge extending SE to just beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and a surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California, 
with seas in the 1-2 ft range in the northern Gulf and in the 
3-5 ft range south of the Tiburon Basin. This pressure gradient 
is also supporting moderate N winds across the offshore waters 
west of the Baja California peninsula with 4-6 ft seas. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico 
and lower pressure within the equatorial trough is supporting 
fresh winds across the Tehuantepec region N of 15N, with seas of
5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate northerly winds occurring across the
offshore waters off of the Baja California peninsula will 
diminish this weekend, as the high pressure to the west weakens
ahead of another cold front expected to enter the Baja Norte
waters Sun afternoon. Moderate NW winds in the Gulf of 
California will diminish this weekend, then shift SW and strengthen
in the northern Gulf Sun night through Mon ahead of the cold
front. Strong gap winds recently occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue to diminish through Sun night then 
become light and variable Mon.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh offshore winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region. Gentle northerly winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the 
remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the
3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region through early next week, briefly
pulsing to strong tonight. Gentle to moderate northerly winds 
will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of the
offshore waters during the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A dissipating
frontal trough is nearly stationary from 30N124W to 27N135W. The
pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds 
north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 117W. Light to gentle 
winds are found north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds are 
elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of 
fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. Active convection
continues across the far western waters to the W of 134W, between
the ITCZ and 20N.

For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds 
will decrease this weekend as the ridge weakens. A new cold 
front will enter the northern waters before sunset this evening. This
front will usher in fresh long period northerly swell over the 
northern waters, with seas building to near 15 ft late Sun
afternoon. Seas to 10 ft and greater will reach as far south as
23N Mon night. The front is expected to sink to along 23N to the
W of 120W by Mon evening and dissipate. Active weather will
continue across the far western waters W of 130W through Tue as
an upper level trough persist just W of 140W.

$$
Stripling