000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101552
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 07N89W to 08N110W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N110W to 10N123W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07.5N E of 
90W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05.5N to 10N between 93W and 112W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 
14.5N between 113W and 134W, and from 11N to 20.5N W of 134W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure center is located near 28N125W, with 
associated weak ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and a surface trough over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW
winds over the Gulf of California, with seas in the 2-3 ft range
in the northern Gulf and in the 3-5 ft range south of the Tiburon
Basin. This pressure gradient is also supporting moderate N winds
across the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula
with 4-6 ft seas. The pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure within the equatorial 
trough is supporting fresh to strong winds across the 
Tehuantepec region N of 13.5N, with seas of 5-7 ft. Light to 
gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate northerly winds occurring across the
offshore waters off of the Baja California peninsula will 
diminish this weekend, as the high pressure to the west weakens.
Moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California will diminish this 
weekend, then winds are expected to strengthen in the northern 
Gulf Sun night into early next week. Strong winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish this weekend. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh offshore winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the 
remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the
3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region through early next week. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. 
Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be 
expected across most of the offshore waters the next several 
days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A
dissipating stationary front extends from 31N127W to 27N137W. 
The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to 
strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 115W. 
Light to gentle winds are found north of 20N. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in
the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds 
will decrease this weekend as the ridge weakens. A cold front 
will enter the northern waters late today. This front will usher
in fresh long period northerly swell over the northern waters, 
with seas building to near 14 ft on Sun.

$$
Stripling