000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100830
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N97W to 08N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N105W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 95W 
and 110W, and from 08N to 11N between 120W and 140W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure center is centered near 28N124W, with 
associated ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a 
surface trough over Mexico is supporting moderate NW winds over 
the Gulf of California, with seas in the 2-3 ft range in the 
northern Gulf and in the 4-5 ft range in the southern Gulf. This 
pressure gradient is also supporting moderate winds across the 
offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula with 5-6 ft
seas. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf 
of Mexico and lower pressure within the equatorial trough is 
supporting fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region, with
seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula will diminish this weekend. Moderate NW winds in the 
Gulf of California will diminish this weekend, with winds
strengthening in the northern Gulf Sun night into early next 
week. Strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this
weekend. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate northerly 
winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere across the remaining waters. Outside of the Papagayo 
region, seas are in the 3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will
prevail elsewhere. Slight seas can be expected across most of 
the offshore waters the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A
dissipating stationary front extends from 30N129W to 28N140W. 
The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to 
strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. 
Light to gentle winds are found north of 20N. Moderate to fresh 
trade- winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range 
in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds 
will decrease this weekend as the ridge weakens. A cold front 
will enter the northern waters late today. This front will usher
in a set of long period northerly swell over the northern waters,
with seas building to near 14 ft by Sun night.

$$
AL