000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 08N110W to 08N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N between 96W and 110W, from 06N to 14N between 114W and 128W, and from 05N to 18N W of 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 28N129W, with associated ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds along the Gulf of California, with seas in the 5-6 ft range. This pressure gradient is also supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula with 5-6 ft seas. With strong pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the presence of a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche, N winds continue to funnel through the Chivela Pass and support fresh to near gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 9 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere over the SW Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 3-4 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh winds through Sat. Fresh NW winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Sat afternoon and to light to gentle speeds Sun morning. Strong to near gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh to strong this evening and to gentle to moderate speeds Sat evening. A cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing NW swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through early next week. The front is forecast to bring strong winds to the northern Gulf of California Sun night, extending to the remaining gulf through early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds along with seas to 6 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining Central America offshore waters while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas are generally 3-4 ft in these later regions. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador through Mon night. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 14N. A cold front extends along the NW waters from 30N128W to 27N140W just east of the center of high pressure. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ between 110W and 120W. Light to gentle variable winds are between the front and just W of the Baja California offshore waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are either N or S of the remainder ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will continue across the forecast area over the next 18 hours, supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds across the west-central waters. Areal coverage of these winds will decrease this weekend as the ridge weakens. The front will gradually weaken and stall on Sat before it merges with a second stronger cold front entering the waters late on Sat. Long period northerly swell associated with this second front is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 9-13 ft by Sun night. $$ Ramos