484 AXPZ20 KNHC 091548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N92W. The ITCZ continues from 07N92W to 09N114W to 08N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 17N west of 126W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 11N between 96W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 27N129W, with associated ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds over the central and southern Gulf of California, with seas in the 5-6 ft range. The pressure gradient is also supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula. With strong pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the presence of of a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche, N winds continue to funnel through the Chivela Pass and support fresh to near gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 10 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere over the SW Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 3-4 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh winds through Sat. Fresh NW winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Sat afternoon and to light to gentle speeds Sun morning. Strong to near gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh to strong this evening and to gentle to moderate speeds Sat evening. A cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing NW swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through early next week. The front is forecast to bring strong winds to the northern Gulf of California Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 05N while gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of 05N. Seas are generally 3-4 ft in regions outside of the Papagayo region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador through Mon night. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front is over the far northern waters west of 131W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of 128W. Moderate to fresh winds are found north of the ITCZ to 22N between 110W and 128W. Light to gentle winds are north of 22N. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will continue across the forecast area over the next 24 to 36 hours, supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds across the west- central waters. Areal coverage of these winds will decrease this weekend as the ridge weakens. The front will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours, with a second stronger cold front entering the waters late on Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 9-13 ft by Sun night. $$ Ramos