000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090841 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 07N91W. The ITCZ continues from 07N91W to 09N114W to 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 110W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 29N126W, with associated ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over western Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds over the southern Gulf of California, with seas in the 6-7 ft range. The pressure gradient is also supporting moderate to fresh winds over the central and northern Gulf of California as well as west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting strong to near gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and seas to 10 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, and 3-4 ft off the coast of SW Mexico. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh winds through Sat. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds in the southern Gulf of California will diminish this morning. Strong to near gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish through this weekend. A cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing NW swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through early next week. The front could bring strong winds to the northern Gulf of California Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 05N while gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of 05N. Seas are generally 3-4 ft in regions outside of the Papagayo region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador through Mon night. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold front is over the far northern waters west of 131W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of 128W. Moderate to fresh winds are found north of the ITCZ to 22N between 110W and 128W. Light to gentle winds are north of 22N. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will continue across the forecast area over the next 24 to 36 hours, supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds across the west- central waters. Areal coverage of these winds will decrease this weekend as the ridge weakens. The front will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours, with a second stronger cold front entering the waters late on Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 9-13 ft by Sun night. $$ AL