000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 07N91W. The ITCZ continues from 07N91W to 09N115W to 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 110W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 30N124W, with associated ridge extending SE to near 16N105W. Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered over western Mexico near 22N103W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds over the southern and central Gulf of California, with seas in the 6-7 ft range. The pressure gradient is also supporting moderate to fresh winds over the northern Gulf of California and west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting strong to near gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and seas to 9 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, and 3-4 ft off the coast of SW Mexico. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting the continuation of fresh winds through Sat. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will prevail in the southern and central Gulf of California through Fri morning. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. A cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing large NW swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through Mon. The front could bring strong winds to the northern Gulf of California Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters while gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of 05N across the NW South America offshore waters. Seas are generally 3-4 ft in regions outside of Papagayo. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador through Mon night. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 128W. Moderate to fresh winds are found north of the ITCZ to 22N between 110W and 128W. Light to gentle winds are north of 22N. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast area over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong winds across the west- central waters. The areal coverage of these winds will decrease Fri night into Sat as the ridge weakens. The weakening ridge will enable a cold front to enter the northern waters early Fri followed by a second and stronger cold front late on Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 9-13 ft by Sun night. $$ AL