000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082128 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Dec 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 07N78W to 06N83W to 07N89W. The ITCZ continues from 07N89W to 09N120W to 10N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 120W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 14N between 106W and 120W and from 06N to 09N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong surface ridging extending across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California against lower pressure associated with a surface trough along the Western Mexico coastal waters sustains moderate to fresh N to NE winds off the Baja peninsula per recent scatterometer data. Seas along this region are up to 5 ft in NW swell. The tightened pressure gradient in the region is also supporting fresh to strong NW winds along the Gulf of California, except for moderate winds in the northern portion of the Gulf. Seas along the gulf are 3-6 ft, highest near the entrance of the gulf. In the Tehuantepec region, fresh to near gale force N winds are occurring with seas up to 10 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-4 ft are seen across the remainder Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting the continuation of fresh winds through Sat. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds in the southern and central Gulf of California through Fri morning as high pressure persists over the Great Basin. These winds will build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California late today through Fri morning. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing large NW swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through Mon. The front could bring strong winds to the northern Gulf of California by Sun evening into Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are present across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 91W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and downwind to about 05N. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the Central. America offshore waters while gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of 05N across the NW South America offshore waters. Seas are generally 3-4 ft in regions outside of Papagayo. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to mainly moderate to fresh winds this afternoon and then prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 11N128W to 17N124W supporting an area of heavy showers described in the ITCZ section. A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. A large area of fresh to strong NE-E winds is just N of the the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 125W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft across this wind zone. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted across much of the area south of the ITCZ to the equator, between 110W and 140W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast area over the next 24 to 36 hours. The aforementioned surface trough will move westward, approaching 140W by Fri. The pressure gradient between the trough and the aforementioned ridge will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong winds across the west-central waters. Winds and seas are expected to peak tonight, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft across the waters from 12N to 24N and W of 130W. The areal coverage of these winds will decrease Fri night into Sat as a cold front moves across the N waters weakening the ridge. The front is forecast to reach the forecast region early on Fri followed by a second and stronger cold front late on Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters by Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 9-13 ft by Sun night. $$ Ramos