000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080315
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06.5N77W  
to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 09N110W to 10N127W
to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N 
between 101W and 110W, and from 07N to 11N W of 130W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are 3-5 ft. Light 
to gentle and variable winds are over the Gulf of California, 
with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds S of 
25N. Seas are 2-4 ft within these winds, and 1-2 ft elsewhere 
across the Gulf. In the Tehuantepec region, fresh to strong N 
winds are occurring with seas up to 8 ft. Light to gentle 
variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft are across the remainder 
Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California, supporting
gentle to moderate N winds through Thu. The ridge will strengthen
later in the week, with N winds increasing to fresh Thu night 
through Sat. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds in the 
southern and central Gulf of California tonight through Fri as 
high pressure builds across the Great Basin. These winds will 
build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California late
Thu afternoon through Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly 
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri night 
with winds likely reaching 30 kt tonight through Thu night. 
Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to reach Baja California 
Norte by late Sun, bringing large NW swell to the waters west of 
Baja California late Sun through Mon. The front could bring 
strong winds to the northern Gulf of California.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are present 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. 
Seas with these winds are 6 ft. Light to gentle northeast to 
east winds are elsewhere north of 09N, with seas of 3-5 ft. 
Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds with seas of 3-4 ft 
are present south of 09N.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
in the Papagayo region through Thu morning. Then, mainly moderate
to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period.
Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change
in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, 
Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of
the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the
Papagayo region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface trough extends from 12N128W to 19N123W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the northern
end of the trough axis from 16N to 19N between 121W and 124W.
A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters, 
anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure located near 32N140W. Fresh 
to strong trades extend from the ITCZ to 22N between 122W and 
140W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft across this wind zone based on a recent 
altimeter pass. Fresh SE winds are noted across much of the area
south of the ITCZ to the equator, between 110W and 140W, where 
seas are 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast 
area over the next 24 to 36 hours. The aforementioned surface 
trough will move westward, approaching 140W by Fri. The pressure 
gradient between the trough and ridge will bring an increase in 
winds and seas across the west-central waters beginning this 
evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas building to 9 to 
12 ft are expected mainly across the waters from 11N to 25N and W
of 125W through early Sat. The aerial coverage of these winds 
will decrease during the upcoming weekend with a belt of fresh to
strong trades persisting from 14N to 20N W of 120W Fri night and
Sat. The next cold front is forecast to reach the far N waters 
early on Fri followed by a second front late on Sat. Long period 
northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters
by Sat night into Sun with building seas of 9-13 ft.

$$
GR