000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Dec 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 10N116W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 14.5N between 98W and 113W, and from 05N to 09N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle and variable winds are over the Gulf of California, with the exception of moderate NW-N winds S of 25N. Seas are 2-4 ft within these winds, and 1-2 ft elsewhere across the Gulf. In the Tehuantepec region, fresh to strong N winds are likely occurring with seas up to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft are across the remainder Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate N winds through today. The ridge will strengthen later in the week, with N winds increasing to fresh Thu through Sat. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds in the southern and central Gulf of California tonight through Fri as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. These winds will build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California late Thu afternoon through Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Fri night with winds likely reaching 30 kt tonight through Thu night. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing large NW swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through Mon. The front could bring strong winds to the northern Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An ASCAT satellite wind data pass from 07/1553 UTC showed fresh NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. Seas with these winds are 6 ft, confirmed by an altimeter satellite pass from 07/1530 UTC. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are elsewhere north of 09N, with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds with seas of 3-4 ft are present south of 05N. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected in the Papagayo region, strongest at night, through tonight. Then, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 14N126W to 19N121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and within 120 nm NW of the trough axis. A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure near 33N140W. Fresh to locally strong trades extend from the ITCZ to 24N between 122W and 140W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft across this wind zone based on altimeter data from this morning. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds across much of the area south of the ITCZ to the equator, between 110W and 140W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast area over the next 24 to 36 hours. The aforementioned surface trough will move westward, approaching 140W by Fri. The gradient between the trough and ridge will bring an increase in winds and seas across the west-central waters beginning this evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas building to 9 to 12 ft are expected mainly across the waters from 11N to 25N and W of 125W through early Sat. The aerial coverage of these winds will decrease during the upcoming weekend with a belt of fresh to strong trades persisting from 14N to 20N W of 120W Fri night and Sat. The next cold front is forecast to reach the far N waters early on Fri followed by a second front late on Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters by Sat night into Sun with building seas of 9-13 ft. $$ Hagen