000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Dec 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 09N120W to beyond 07N140W. A surface trough is analyzed along 124W from 10N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 96W and 116W. A few showers are near the northern end of the trough. Similar convective activity is from 06N to 08N W of 130W. A few showers are near the northern end of the trough. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate light and variable winds over the Gulf of California, with the exception of moderate to fresh northerly winds S of 25N. These winds extend southward beyond the entrance of the Gulf to about 22N. Seas are 3-4 ft within these winds, and 1-2 ft elsewhere across the Gulf. In the Tehuantepec region fresh N winds are noted per an ASCAT pass. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft in NW swell are across the remainder Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate N winds through Thu. The ridge will strengthen later in the week, with N winds increasing to moderate to fresh by Thu night through Sat. Expect fresh NW to N winds in the southern and central Gulf of California tonight through Fri as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. These winds will build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California Thu night and Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Fri night with winds likely reaching 30 kt tonight through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are present across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds along with seas of 3-5 ft are present to the south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-4 ft are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected in the Papagayo region, strongest at night, through tonight. Then, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure located N of the area near 38N142W. Moderate to locally fresh trades extend from the ITCZ to 20N between W of 118W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this wind zone based on altimeter data. Mainly moderate SE to S winds and 5-7 ft seas are present south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast area over the next 48 hours. A surface trough, embedded in the ITCZ, will move westward between 125W-140W over the next three days. The pressure gradient between these two features is bringing an increase in winds and seas across the west-central waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas building to 9 to 11 ft are expected mainly across the waters from 11N to 25N and W of W of 125W through Fri. The aerial coverage of these winds will decrease during the upcoming weekend with a belt of fresh to strong trades persisting from 14N to 20N W of 120W Fri night and Sat. The next cold front is forecast to reach the far N waters early on Fri followed by a second front late on Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters by Sat night into Sun with building seas of 8-12 ft. $$ GR