000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070305
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 07N92W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N92W to 09N120W to beyond 07N140W. A surface
trough is analyzed along 123W from 10N to 17N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 10N between 95W and 115W. Similar 
convective activity is just E of the trough axis from 14N to 18N
between 120W and 123W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Ridging prevails across the waters, anchored by a 1028 mb high 
pressure located NW of the area near 38N142W. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds dominate the waters west of Baja California with
4-6 ft seas. N to NW winds of similar speed are along the Gulf 
of California with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds 
and seas of 3-5 ft are across the remainder Mexican offshore 
waters. Fresh N winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California, supporting
mainly moderate N winds through Wed morning. The ridge will
strengthen later in the week, with N winds increasing to moderate
to fresh late Wed through Fri night. Expect fresh NW to N winds 
in the southern and central Gulf of California Wed night through
Fri as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. These winds
will build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California
Thu night and Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri night with winds 
likely reaching 30 kt Wed night through Thu night.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are present across the
Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. Seas with 
these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle northeast to east 
winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with seas of 4-5
ft. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds along 
with seas of 3-5 ft are present to the south of the monsoon 
trough, including between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
in the Papagayo region, strongest at night, through Wed night.
Then, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder 
of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters 
of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be 
expected across most of the offshore waters through the next 
several days, except in the Papagayo region. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface ridge extends across the northern waters, anchored by a  
1028 mb high pressure N of the area near 38N142W. Moderate to 
locally fresh trades extend from the ITCZ to 24N between W of 
130W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft across this wind zone. Mainly moderate 
SE to S winds and 6-7 ft seas are present south of the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will strengthen across
the forecast area over the next 48 hours. A surface trough, 
embedded in the ITCZ, will move westward between 120W-140W over 
the next three days. The pressure gradient between these two 
features will bring an increase in winds and seas across the 
west-central waters beginning late tonight and lasting into the
weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas building to 9 to
11 ft are expected mainly across the waters from 11N to 24N and W
of W of 125W, Wed through Sat. The next cold front is forecast 
to reach the far N waters on Fri followed by a secondary front 
on Sat. A new swell event is expected in the wake of these fronts.

$$
GR