000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062156
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 07N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N90W to 07N106W to 10N121W, then resumes again 
W of a surface trough from 11N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is found from 07N to 15N between 95W and 106W and 
from 07N to 09N between 130W and 136W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Ridging prevails across the waters, anchored by a 1030 mb high 
pressure NW of the area near 40N142W. Light to gentle variable 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds dominate the waters 
west of Baja California with 4-6 ft seas. N to NW winds of
similar speed are along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. 
Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft are across the
remainder Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California, supporting
mainly moderate N winds through Wed morning. The ridge will
strengthen later in the week, with N winds increasing to moderate
to fresh late Wed through Fri night. Expect fresh NW to N winds 
in the southern and central Gulf of California Wed night through
Fri as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. These winds
will build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California
Thu night and Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri night with winds 
likely reaching 30 kt Wed night through Thu night.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are present
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. 
Seas with these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle northeast 
to east winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with 
seas of 4-5 ft. Gentle south to southwest winds along with seas 
of 3-5 ft are present to the south of the monsoon trough. Gentle
south to southwest winds are noted between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands with seas of 3-4 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
in the Papagayo region, strongest at night, through Wed night.
Then, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder 
of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters 
of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be 
expected across most of the offshore waters through the next 
several days, except in the Papagayo region. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface ridge extends across the northern waters, anchored by a
1018 mb high pressure near 27N122W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are
near the high pressure. Moderate to locally fresh trades extend
from the ITCZ to 20N between 118W and 140W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft
across this trade wind zone. Similar winds are found from 20N to
26N between 132W and 140W with 6 to 8 ft seas. Mainly moderate SE
to S winds and 6-7 ft seas are present south of the ITCZ. A 
surface trough extends from 17N119W to 09N124W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13.5N to 18.5N 
between 114.5W to 122W.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will strengthen across
the forecast area over the next 48 hours. A surface trough, 
embedded in the ITCZ, will move westward between 120W-140W over 
the next three days. The pressure gradient between these two 
features will bring an increase in winds and seas across the 
west-central waters beginning late tonight and lasting into the
weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas building to 9 to
11 ft are expected mainly across the waters from 11N to 24N and W
of W of 125W, Wed through Sat. The next cold front is forecast 
to reach the far N waters on Fri followed by a secondary front 
on Sat. A new swell event is expected in the wake of these 
fronts.

$$
Ramos