000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 09N90W. The ITCZ continues from 09N90W to 09N105W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 12N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 07N to 09N between 96W and 101W, from 08N to 10N between 116W and 121W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N to 18N between 116W and 118W. Similar convective activity is near 12.5N110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N winds and seas less than 8 ft are noted across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly N of 15N between 94.5W and 95.5W. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, with an area of moderate to fresh winds N of 26N and within about 90 nm of the coast, including the Bay of Sebastian Vizcaino. Seas are 5-7 ft within these winds. Across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft primarily to due a long-period northwest are seen. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are in the central and southern Gulf of California, with seas of 2-4 ft. Mainly light and variable winds with seas less than 2 ft dominate the northern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California the remainder of the work-week supporting moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds. Expect moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the Gulf of California Wed night through Fri as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. These winds will briefly build seas to 6-7 ft near the entrance of the Gulf Thu night into Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri night with winds likely reaching 30 kt. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 87W based on a recent scatterometer pass. Peak seas with these winds are up to 7 ft. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough along 09N, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle south to southwest winds along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a northerly swell mixing with south swell are present to the south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle south to southwest winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 3-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected in the Papagayo region mainly at night through Wed, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure located NW of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters mainly N of 18N and W of 110W producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Based on altimeter data, seas are 8 to 9 ft in NW swell from 17N to 30N W of 130W. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere on either side of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in NW swell W of 110W. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build across the forecast area over the next 48-72 hours. A surface trough, embedded in the ITCZ, will move westward between 120W-140W over the next three days. The pressure gradient between these two features will bring an increase in winds and seas across the west-central waters beginning Tue night. Currently, model guidance suggests fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas building to 9 or 10 ft, mainly across the waters from 11N to 24N W of 130W, and from 15N to 22N between 120W and 130W by Wed night. These marine conditions are expected to persist beyond Thu. The next cold front is forecast to reach the far N waters on Fri following by a secondary front on Sat. A new swell event is expected in the wake of these fronts. $$ GR